According to https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q4tS_WMLIcKUla7mcSxHq1caFdethPOC-U0A5BxIYtk/edit?usp=sharing, the average ship time of wishlist items is approximately 283 days.
E-commerce (wishlist item) IS very difficult and challenging to get right, therefore I estimate that the initial Release will fall into or even exceed the tail-end (~589 days) of the range (20 - 589 days), and Planned/Future will follow after that.
Another interesting observation from the list is that there is NO correlation between number of votes and time to ship.